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The 2024 United States presidential election in Ohio is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Ohio voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Ohio has 17 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat.[1] While Ohio was considered a crucial swing and bellwether state for decades, it voted significantly more Republican than the nation in both 2016 and 2020. Based on these trends, it is expected to be less heavily contested than in previous presidential election cycles.
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term.[2] If he wins without the state again, he will become the first president since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944 to win another term without carrying the state.
Primary elections
Democratic primary
Republican primary
The Ohio Republican primary is scheduled to be held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Arizona, Florida, and Illinois.
General election
Polling
- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College/WJW-TV | November 10–13, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 38% | 12% |
| Data for Progress (D) | October 31 – November 2, 2023 | 597 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 43% | 6% |
| Ohio Northern University | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 40% | 15%[lower-alpha 2] |
| Emerson College | October 2-4, 2023 | 438 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 45% | 33% | 23% |
| Ohio Northern University | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 49% | 39% | 12% |
| Targoz Market Research | November 2–6, 2022 | 505 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 57% | 40% | 3% |
| Emerson College | October 30 – November 1, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 38% | 12% |
| Ohio Northern University/Lucid | October 11–15, 2022 | 668 (LV) | – | 55% | 35% | 10% |
| Emerson College | October 6–7, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 40% | 12% |
| Emerson College | September 12–13, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 40% | 10% |
| Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 831 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
| Emerson College | August 15–16, 2022 | 925 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 53% | 39% | 8% |
| PEM Management Corporation (R)[upper-alpha 1] | July 22–24, 2022 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 42% | 44% | 14% |
- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College/WJW-TV | November 10–13, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 31% | 8% | 1% | 2% | 13% |
- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden. vs. Robert F Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio Northern University | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 35% | 11% | 12%[lower-alpha 3] |
- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Cornel West Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk University | July 9–12, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 38% | 2% | 16% |
- Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio Northern University | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 38% | 41% | 21%[lower-alpha 4] |
| Ohio Northern University | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 41% | 39% | 20% |
| Emerson College | October 6–7, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 38% | 13% |
| Emerson College | September 12–13, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 38% | 14% |
| Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 831 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 46% | 40% | 14% |
- Ron Desantis vs. Joe Biden vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Ron Desantis Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Cornel West Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk University | July 9–12, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 39% | 37% | 2% | 22% |
- Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio Northern University | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 34% | 36% | 30%[lower-alpha 5] |
| Ohio Northern University | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 38% | 38% | 24% |
- Generic Republican vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Generic Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Causeway Solutions | May 19–27, 2023 | 1,639 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 45% | 33% | 22% |
Hypothetical polling
- Chris Christie vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Chris Christie Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio Northern University | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 33% | 39% | 28% |
- Mike Pence vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Mike Pence Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio Northern University | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 38% | 38% | 24%[lower-alpha 6] |
| Ohio Northern University | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 37% | 38% | 25% |
- Tim Scott vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Tim Scott Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio Northern University | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 38% | 39% | 23% |
See also
Notes
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ↑ Some Other Candidate at 5%; Undecided at 10%
- ↑ Some Other Candidate at 2%; Undecided at 10%
- ↑ Some Other Candidate at 5%; Undecided at 16%
- ↑ Some Other Candidate at 8%; Undecided at 22%
- ↑ Some Other Candidate at 8%; Undecided at 16%
- Partisan clients
- ↑ Poll conducted for the John Bolton Super PAC
References
- ↑ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ↑ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
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