2024 United States Senate election in Wisconsin
November 5, 2024
 
Party Democratic Republican
Incumbent U.S. senator

Tammy Baldwin
Democratic


The 2024 United States Senate election in Wisconsin will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Wisconsin. Incumbent two-term Democratic senator Tammy Baldwin was re-elected with 55.4% of the vote in 2018. Baldwin announced she would be running for re-election on April 12, 2023.[1] No Republican has won this Class 1 senate seat since Joseph McCarthy in 1952. Primary elections will take place on August 13, 2024.[2]

Background

Wisconsin is considered to be a purple state at the federal level, especially since there are both a Republican and Democratic senator representing the state. Wisconsin was also a top battleground state in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. The state backed the Republican candidate in 2016, and then the Democratic candidate in 2020, both by less than a percentage point and only a plurality.

Both parties have seen success in the state in recent years. Republicans control both chambers of the Wisconsin Legislature and hold a supermajority in Wisconsin's U.S. House delegation. However, Democrats have seen success in statewide races, including in 2022, where incumbent governor Tony Evers overperformed expectations and won reelection to a second term, despite polls showing his Republican challenger as the slight favorite.[3][4]

Baldwin was first elected in 2012, defeating former governor Tommy Thompson by 6 percentage points and was re-elected in 2018 by 11 percentage points.[5][6]

This race had originally been expected to be highly competitive given the state's nearly even partisan lean, with early-cycle analysis judging Baldwin to be only a slight favorite to win reelection.[7] However, as of September 2023 only two relatively obscure candidates had filed to enter the Republican primary, while candidates that have greater name recognition have indicated they would not attempt to challenge Baldwin.[8] After Wisconsin Rep. Mike Gallagher in particular decided against running, by summer 2023 Republican hopes to capture the seat were characterized as "desperate"[9] and a "tough bid .. an uphill climb," with an unnamed Wisconsin GOP strategist sharing “Tammy Baldwin is good. Republicans have always underestimated her in the past, kind of the same way Democrats underestimate Ron Johnson.”[10]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Endorsements

Tammy Baldwin
U.S representatives
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Tammy Baldwin (D) $17,960,691 $11,248,113 $6,854,771
Source: Federal Election Commission[33]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Publicly expressed interest

Potential

Declined

Endorsements

Declined to endorse
U.S. senators

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 David
Clarke		 Mike
Gallagher		 Eric
Hovde		 Scott
Mayer		 Tom
Tiffany		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) December 11–12, 2023 503 (LV) ± 4.4% 52% – 7% 6% – 36%
51% – 10% – – 39%
52% – – 6% – 42%
Public Policy Polling (D) June 5–6, 2023 507 (LV) ± 4.4% 40% 20% 3% – 10% 27%
45% 26% – – – 29%

Libertarian convention

Candidates

Declared

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Phil Anderson (L) $11,019 $5,093 $5,926
Source: Federal Election Commission[33]

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[46] Lean D May 3, 2023
Inside Elections[47] Lean D July 28, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[48] Lean D January 24, 2023
Elections Daily[49] Lean D May 4, 2023
CNalysis[50] Lean D November 21, 2023

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Tammy Baldwin vs. Mike Gallagher
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Tammy
Baldwin (D)		 Mike
Gallagher (R)		 Undecided
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[upper-alpha 1] May 23–25, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 46% 7%
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Generic
Democrat		 Generic
Republican		 Undecided
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[upper-alpha 1] May 23–25, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 42% 46% 12%
Tammy Baldwin vs. generic opponent
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Tammy
Baldwin (D)		 Generic
Opponent		 Undecided
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[upper-alpha 1] May 23–25, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 40% 43% 17%

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
Partisan clients
  1. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which supports Gallagher.

References

  1. 1 2 Andrea, Lawrence (April 12, 2022). "Tammy Baldwin launches re-election bid, setting up 2024 Senate battle in Wisconsin". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved April 12, 2023.
  2. ↑ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
  3. ↑ "Wisconsin 2020 presidential election results". www.cnn.com. Retrieved March 21, 2023.
  4. ↑ "Opinion | In Wisconsin, Tony Evers made a virtue of being dull". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved March 21, 2023.
  5. ↑ "Wisconsin". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved March 21, 2023.
  6. ↑ "Wisconsin | Full Senate results". www.cnn.com. Retrieved March 21, 2023.
  7. ↑ Coleman, J. Miles (October 27, 2022). "The Senate: Race for Majority Remains a Toss-up as 2024 Looms – Sabato's Crystal Ball". Retrieved February 25, 2023.
  8. ↑ "Second Wisconsin Republican announces bid in 2024 US Senate race". PBS Wisconsin. Retrieved October 16, 2023.
  9. ↑ Singer, Emily (August 16, 2023). "Republicans search for someone, anyone, to take on Wisconsin Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin". The American Independent. Retrieved October 16, 2023.
  10. ↑ Al Weaver, Julia Manchester (June 14, 2023). "Republicans face tough bid to oust Baldwin in Wisconsin Senate race". The Hill. Retrieved October 16, 2023.
  11. ↑ Wells, Dylan (April 12, 2022). "Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin announces reelection bid in Wisconsin". Washington Post. Retrieved April 12, 2022.
  12. 1 2 "GIFFORDS PAC Endorses Tammy Baldwin for Reelection to the US Senate". Giffords. September 6, 2023. Retrieved September 7, 2023.
  13. 1 2 "NextGen PAC: Endorses Sen. Baldwin ahead of 2024 elections". Wispolitics.com. May 10, 2023. Retrieved May 10, 2023.
  14. 1 2 "Wisconsin AFL-CIO Endorses Tammy Baldwin in 2024 Senate Race". Wisconsin AFL-CIO. May 26, 2023. Retrieved May 28, 2023.
  15. ↑ "314 Action Fund Endorses Wisconsin Senator Tammy Baldwin for Re-Election. - 3.14 Action".
  16. ↑ "Senate Candidates". Council for a Livable World. Retrieved August 24, 2023.
  17. 1 2 McIntire, Mary Ellen; Altimari, Altimari; Jackson, Herb (April 25, 2023). "At the Races: Survey Says What?". Roll Call. Retrieved May 25, 2023.
  18. ↑ "Fair Wisconsin Political Action Committee (PAC)". Fair Wisconsin PAC. May 22, 2023. Retrieved June 27, 2023.
  19. ↑ "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved April 11, 2023.
  20. ↑ "Human Rights Campaign Endorses Wisconsin Senator Tammy Baldwin for Re-election". Human Rights Campaign. December 13, 2023. Retrieved December 14, 2023.
  21. ↑ "Tammy Baldwin". JStreetPAC. Retrieved August 26, 2023.
  22. ↑ "JDCA Announces First Round of 2024 Senate Endorsements". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
  23. ↑ "Meet JAC's 2024 Candidates | Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs". jacpac.org. Archived from the original on September 1, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
  24. ↑ "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of Congressional Endorsements". League of Conservation Voters. Retrieved July 27, 2023.
  25. ↑ Fujii, Albert (April 24, 2023). "LGBTQ+ Victory Fund Endorses Tammy Baldwin for U.S. Senate". LGBTQ+ Victory Fund. Retrieved May 10, 2023.
  26. ↑ "LPAC Announces April 2023 Endorsement Slate". LPAC. April 18, 2023. Retrieved April 24, 2023.
  27. ↑ Communications (July 20, 2023). "NARAL Pro-Choice America Endorses Sen. Tammy Baldwin for Reelection to the U.S. Senate for Wisconsin". NARAL Pro-Choice America. Retrieved July 20, 2023.
  28. ↑ "Endorsed Candidates". National Women's Political Caucus. Retrieved September 29, 2023.
  29. ↑ Dison, Denis (September 20, 2023). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 51 House, Senate Incumbents". NRDC Action Fund. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
  30. ↑ "Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorses Reproductive Rights Champions Baldwin, Brown, Gillibrand, Rosen, Tester for Re-Election in 2024". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org. Retrieved July 31, 2023.
  31. ↑ "2024 Endorsements". Population Connection Action Fund. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
  32. ↑ "2023 - 2024 Stonewall Endorsed Candidates". Stonewall Democratic Club. Retrieved October 17, 2023.
  33. 1 2 "2024 Election United States Senate - Wisconsin". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
  34. ↑ "Second Wisconsin Republican announces bid to take on Sen. Tammy Baldwin". Associated Press. September 12, 2023. Retrieved September 13, 2023.
  35. ↑ Bauer, Scott (August 8, 2023). "A longshot Republican is entering the US Senate race in Wisconsin against Sen. Tammy Baldwin". Town and Country Today.
  36. ↑ "Trempealeau County Board member files to run for U.S. Senate as a Republican". WKBT-DT. September 12, 2023. Retrieved September 19, 2023.
  37. 1 2 Merica, Dan; Holt, Matt (August 4, 2023). "Wisconsin Republicans Are Still Searching for a Senate Candidate. Democrats Know Who They Prefer". The Messenger. Retrieved August 4, 2023.
  38. ↑ Sivak, David (August 7, 2023). "Madison millionaire weighs Baldwin challenge as GOP seeks Wisconsin Senate candidate". Washington Examiner. Retrieved August 8, 2023.
  39. 1 2 3 Marquez, Alexandra (October 24, 2023). "Republicans look to fill a glaring hole in their Senate recruitment map". NBC News. Retrieved October 24, 2023.
  40. ↑ Andrea, Lawrence (July 13, 2023). "Scott Mayer, a prospective GOP challenger to Sen. Tammy Baldwin, remains reluctant for now". Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. Retrieved July 14, 2023.
  41. ↑ Andrea, Lawrence (June 9, 2023). "Wisconsin Rep. Mike Gallagher says he will not run for Senate in 2024, leaving an open GOP field". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved June 9, 2023.
  42. ↑ Lieffring, Christina (May 24, 2023). "Website names purchased, big cash raised, but Steil 'not running,' Gallagher mum on running against 'popular' Baldwin". The Badger Project. Retrieved May 25, 2023.
  43. ↑ Andrea, Lawrence (August 1, 2023). "U.S. Rep. Tiffany says he will not run for Senate in 2024". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved August 1, 2023.
  44. ↑ Glauber, Bill (March 20, 2023). "Scott Walker won't challenge Democratic U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin in 2024: 'I would be bored as a senator'". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved March 20, 2023.
  45. ↑ Frisk, Garrett (March 28, 2023). "First Declared Challenger to Tammy Baldwin is a Libertarian". Diamond Eye Candidate Report.
  46. ↑ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
  47. ↑ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  48. ↑ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
  49. ↑ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
  50. ↑ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
Official campaign websites
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