2024 United States Senate election in Texas
November 5, 2024
 
Party Republican Democratic
Incumbent U.S. senator

Ted Cruz
Republican


The 2024 United States Senate election in Texas will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Texas. Two-term incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz is seeking a third term in office.[1] Primary elections will take place on March 5, 2024. If needed, runoff elections will take place on May 28, 2024.[2]

Background

Texas is considered to be a moderately red state at the federal level, especially since Donald Trump only carried Texas by about six percentage points in the 2020 presidential election. However, Republicans control both U.S. Senate seats, all statewide offices, both houses of the Texas Legislature, and a majority in its U.S. House congressional delegation.[3][4]

Democrats seem to have been increasingly doing better in Texas elections, having only lost the most recent U.S. Senate races in 2018 and 2020 by single-digit margins. Cruz was first elected in 2012, defeating Paul Sadler by 15.9 points and was reelected in 2018 by only 2.6 points, narrowly defeating Beto O'Rourke.[5][6][7]

This race is considered to favor Cruz, but some consider the race to have the potential to become competitive.[8]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Ted Cruz, incumbent U.S. senator (2013–present)[9]
  • Holland Gibson, retiree[10]
  • Rufus Lopez, attorney[10]

Declined

Endorsements

Ted Cruz (R)
U.S. senators
Labor unions
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Ted Cruz (R) $40,800,931 $35,202,793 $5,756,097
Source: Federal Election Commission[21]

Results

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Ted Cruz (incumbent)
Republican Holland Gibson
Republican Rufus Lopez
Total votes

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Failed to qualify

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Colin Allred
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Organizations
Roland Gutierrez
U.S. representatives
State senators
State representatives
Individuals
Organizations
Declined to endorse
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Colin Allred (D) $13,561,666 $5,641,682 $7,919,983
Tracy Andrus (D) $18,260 $9,038 $8,836
Roland Gutierrez (D) $632,359 $252,482 $379,877
Steven Keough (D) $24,802 $18,017 $6,785
John Love III (D) $43,675 $43,926 $1,004
Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman (D) $28,087 $26,578 $1,508
Carl Sherman (D) $82,775 $11,960 $70,814
Thierry Tchenko (D) $82,686 $45,379 $37,306
Source: Federal Election Commission[21]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Collin
Allred		 Meri
Gomez		 Mark
Gonzalez		 Roland
Gutierrez		 Robert
Hassan		 Steve
Keough		 Heli
Rodriguez-Prilliman		 Carl
Sherman		 Thierry
Tchenko		 Other Undecided
YouGov[upper-alpha 1] December 1–10, 2023 415 (RV) ± 4.81% 28% 3% 2% 7% – 1% 0% 2% 0% 9%[lower-alpha 2] 48%
YouGov[upper-alpha 1] October 5–17, 2023 409 (RV) ± 4.84% 21% 2% 2% 10% – 2% 1% 2% 2% 10%[lower-alpha 3] 46%
Texas Hispanic
Policy Foundation		 May 8–17, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 2.9% 33% – – 22% – – – – – 4%[lower-alpha 4] 41%

Results

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Colin Allred
Democratic Meri Gomez
Democratic Mark Gonzalez
Democratic Roland Gutierrez
Democratic Robert Hassan
Democratic Steven Keough
Democratic Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman
Democratic Carl Sherman
Democratic Thierry Tchenko
Total votes

Green primary

Candidates

Filed paperwork

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[53] Likely R November 9, 2023
Inside Elections[54] Likely R November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[55] Likely R November 9, 2023
Elections Daily[56] Likely R May 4, 2023
CNalysis[57] Lean R November 21, 2023

Polling

Ted Cruz vs. Colin Allred
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Ted
Cruz (R)		 Colin
Allred (D)		 Other Undecided
YouGov[upper-alpha 1] December 1–10, 2023 1,200 (RV) ± 2.4% 43% 27% 15%[lower-alpha 5] 15%
University of Texas at Tyler May 10–21, 2023 1,413 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 37% 8%[lower-alpha 6] 14%
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation May 8–17, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 2.9% 47% 40% 4%[lower-alpha 7] 9%
Ted Cruz vs. Roland Gutierrez
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Ted
Cruz (R)		 Roland
Gutierrez (D)		 Other Undecided
YouGov[upper-alpha 1] December 1–10, 2023 1,200 (RV) ± 2.4% 42% 26% 16%[lower-alpha 8] 17%

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ Sherri Taylor, Victor D. Dunn and John Love III with 2%; Tracy Andrus and Aaron Arguijo with 1%; Teresa Naranjo with 0%, "Someone else" with 1%
  3. ↑ Sherri Taylor with 3%; Tracy Andrus and Teresa Naranjo with 2%; Aaron Arguijo and John Love III with 1%; Victor Dunn with 0%; "Someone else" with 1%
  4. ↑ John Love with 4%
  5. ↑ "Someone else" with 15%
  6. ↑ "Someone else" with 7%; Refused to answer with 1%
  7. ↑ Libertarian candidate with 2%; Green Party candidate with 2%
  8. ↑ "Someone else" with 16%
Partisan clients
  1. 1 2 3 4 Poll sponsored by the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas

References

  1. ↑ Linton, Caroline (February 14, 2023). "Ted Cruz recommits to 2024 Senate run". CBS News. Archived from the original on September 3, 2023.
  2. ↑ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". National Conference of State Legislatures. Archived from the original on November 10, 2023.
  3. ↑ "Texas President Results". CNN. Retrieved April 16, 2023.
  4. ↑ Hardy, Michael (March 9, 2023). "How the Texas GOP Became the Party of Big Government". Texas Monthly. Retrieved April 16, 2023.
  5. ↑ "Texas". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved April 16, 2023.
  6. ↑ "Texas Senate Election Results 2018". POLITICO. November 7, 2018. Retrieved April 16, 2023.
  7. ↑ Goodman, J. David (November 9, 2022). "Texas Democrats Look to a Future Beyond Beto". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved April 16, 2023.
  8. ↑ Choi, Matthew (March 30, 2023). "Why Ted Cruz's next reelection path looks smoother with Beto O'Rourke behind him". The Texas Tribune. Retrieved April 16, 2023.
  9. ↑ Chan, Sewell (November 19, 2022). "U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz confirms he will seek a third term in 2024". The Texas Tribune.
  10. 1 2 3 4 5 6 "Candidate Information". Texas Secretary of State. Retrieved November 11, 2023.
  11. ↑ Neukam, Stephen (September 23, 2022). "Republican Texas Congressman Dan Crenshaw takes aim at his own party's "woke right" for stoking division". The Texas Tribune.
  12. ↑ Druke, Galen (November 2, 2023). "Adam Kinzinger muses: 'I would love to run against Ted Cruz'". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 2, 2023.
  13. 1 2 "RJC PAC Endorses Champions of the Jewish Community, Senators Ted Cruz and Rick Scott, for Re-Election". Republican Jewish Coalition. July 12, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
  14. ↑ Pauda, Erica (September 15, 2023). "CLEAT Endorsed Sen. Ted Cruz for Reelection". KXAN. Retrieved September 15, 2023.
  15. ↑ "Support Pro-Israel Candidates". AIPAC PAC. Retrieved April 7, 2023.
  16. ↑ Kildea, Joe (August 9, 2023). "Club for Growth PAC Endorses Cruz In TX Senate Race". Club for Growth. Archived from the original on September 11, 2023. Retrieved September 11, 2023.
  17. ↑ "Senate Conservatives Fund". www.senateconservatives.com. Retrieved September 2, 2023.
  18. ↑ "NEWS RELEASE: Texas Alliance for Life Releases First Round of Endorsements in the Primary Elections - Texas Alliance for Life". Texas Alliance for Life - Changing Hearts, Saving Lives Since 1988. October 5, 2023. Archived from the original on October 5, 2023. Retrieved October 5, 2023.
  19. ↑ "Endorsements". Turning Point Action. Retrieved December 14, 2023.
  20. ↑ Dunning, Nate (October 10, 2023). "Young Conservatives of Texas Announces First Round of 2024 Endorsements - Young Conservatives of TexasYoung Conservatives of Texas". Young Conservatives of Texas. Retrieved October 17, 2023.
  21. 1 2 "2024 Election United States Senate - Texas". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
  22. ↑ Jeffers Jr., Gromer (May 3, 2023). "Rep. Colin Allred launches Senate bid to oust Ted Cruz". The Dallas Morning News. Retrieved May 3, 2023.
  23. ↑ Williams, Haley; Gibson, Michael (September 5, 2023). "District Attorney Mark Gonzalez resigns to run for US Senate against Ted Cruz". KIII. Retrieved August 5, 2023.
  24. ↑ Svitek, Patrick (July 10, 2023). "Texas Sen. Roland Gutierrez enters Democratic primary targeting U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz in 2024". The Texas Tribune. Retrieved July 10, 2023.
  25. ↑ Powell, Adam (July 7, 2023). "Democrat Steven Keough: Road to US Senate in Texas runs through El Paso". El Paso Times. Retrieved July 6, 2023.
  26. 1 2 "These Four Democrats Want to Unseat Ted Cruz". Diamond Eye Candidate Report. March 31, 2023. Archived from the original on March 31, 2023.
  27. ↑ Svitek, Patrick (September 9, 2023). "State Rep. Carl Sherman becomes latest Democrat to target Sen. Ted Cruz in 2024". The Texas Tribune. Retrieved September 9, 2023.
  28. ↑ Frisk, Garrett (July 6, 2023). "More Democrats Announce for 2024 Texas Senate Race". Diamond Eye Candidate Report. Retrieved July 6, 2023.
  29. ↑ Randle, Caitlin (June 4, 2021). "Former Midland councilman announces U.S. Senate run in 2024". Midland Reporter-Telegram. Retrieved November 30, 2022.
  30. ↑ Frisk, Garrett (May 3, 2023). "He's In: Democrat Colin Allred Announces Campaign Against Ted Cruz". Diamond Eye Candidate Report. Retrieved May 16, 2023.
  31. ↑ "Texas House Candidate Roundup: May 30, 2023".
  32. 1 2 Covey, Erin (March 22, 2023). "Texas Senate: Always on Democrats' Mind". Inside Elections.
  33. ↑ "Dallas Democrat Colin Allred announces 2024 challenge to Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz". Julián Castro, the former U.S. housing secretary and San Antonio mayor, does not plan to run, according to a spokesperson.
  34. 1 2 Svitek, Patrick; Choi, Matthew (May 3, 2023). "Dallas Democrat Colin Allred announces 2024 challenge to Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz". The Texas Tribune. Retrieved May 3, 2023.
  35. 1 2 3 4 5 Jeffers Jr., Gromer (July 6, 2023). "Ted Cruz, Colin Allred prepare for Senate showdown as others plan to join the race". The Dallas Morning News. Retrieved July 6, 2023.
  36. 1 2 Carrasquillo, Adrian (October 26, 2023). "Hispanic Caucus Super PAC Under Fire From Democrats for Not Backing Latino Candidate To Unseat Sen. Ted Cruz (Exclusive)". The Messenger. Retrieved October 26, 2023.
  37. 1 2 Franken, Al (July 19, 2023). "Why I Hate Ted Cruz". Midwest Values PAC. Retrieved September 9, 2023.
  38. ↑ "TX-Sen: Jon Tester helps Colin Allred (D) fire Ted Cruz". Daily Kos. August 15, 2023. Retrieved August 15, 2023.
  39. ↑ "Moulton backs Allred and promotes MA Convention". May 18, 2023.
  40. ↑ Powell, Adam (August 10, 2023). "U.S. Rep. Colin Allred receives Borderland endorsements in bid to oust U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz". El Paso Times. Archived from the original on August 19, 2023. Retrieved August 19, 2023.
  41. ↑ "Candidates". The Collective PAC. Retrieved September 8, 2023.
  42. ↑ Congressional Black Caucus PAC (@cbcpac) (May 16, 2023). "The #CBCPAC is proud to endorse Rep. Colin Allred's campaign for U.S. Senate in Texas! #cbcpacendorsed". Twitter. Retrieved May 16, 2023.
  43. ↑ "Senate Candidates". Council for a Livable World. Archived from the original on September 6, 2023. Retrieved September 6, 2023.
  44. 1 2 "End Citizens United // Let America Vote Endorses Congressman Colin Allred for U.S. Senate". End Citizens United | We the People, Not "We the Wealthy". June 26, 2023. Retrieved June 26, 2023.
  45. ↑ "Meet JAC's 2024 Candidates | Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs". jacpac.org. Archived from the original on September 1, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
  46. ↑ "Colin Allred". JStreetPAC. Retrieved August 4, 2023.
  47. ↑ "LCV Action Fund Endorses Colin Allred for Senate". League of Conservation Voters. Archived from the original on September 27, 2023. Retrieved September 27, 2023.
  48. ↑ "Meet Our 2024 Candidates". Peace Action. Archived from the original on July 14, 2023. Retrieved July 14, 2023.
  49. 1 2 3 Powell, Adam (October 11, 2023). "State Sen. Roland Gutierrez drawing strength from Uvalde tragedy in US Senate campaign". El Paso Times. Retrieved October 16, 2023.
  50. ↑ Arévalo, Dina (September 11, 2023). "Ted Cruz challenger Roland Gutierrez stumps in the RGV". My RGV:The Monitor. Archived from the original on October 5, 2023. Retrieved October 5, 2023.
  51. ↑ Our Revolution Montgomery County, TX (@OurRevMCTX) (September 4, 2023). "We're proud to endorse @RolandForTexas for US Senate for his commitment to fighting for the working-class of Montgomery County and TX via populist multipartisan policies like #EndingGunViolence,#ClimateAction via a TX #GreenNewDeal,#Medicare4All, and more". Twitter. Retrieved October 7, 2023.
  52. ↑ "Mason Cysewski FEC statement of candidacy" (PDF). Federal Election Commission. December 15, 2022.
  53. ↑ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
  54. ↑ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  55. ↑ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
  56. ↑ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
  57. ↑ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
Official campaign websites
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