2024 United States Senate election in Ohio
November 5, 2024
 
Nominee Sherrod Brown (presumptive) TBD
Party Democratic Republican
Incumbent U.S. senator

Sherrod Brown
Democratic


The 2024 United States Senate election in Ohio will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Ohio. Primary elections are scheduled to take place on March 19, 2024.[1] Incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown is seeking a fourth term in office.[2] This race is one of three Democratic-held U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2024 in a state Donald Trump won in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, alongside Montana and West Virginia. Brown's re-election is considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain the Senate majority in 2024.[3]

Background

Ohio has trended towards Republicans in recent years and is now seen as a moderately red state at the federal level. Republicans hold the other U.S. Senate seat and all statewide executive offices along with majorities in both state legislative chambers and the U.S. representative delegation. However, in the 2022 midterms Democrats managed to net gain a seat in Ohio's U.S. House delegation.[4][5]

Former President Donald Trump won Ohio in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections by about 8 points. Republican J. D. Vance defeated Democrat Tim Ryan in the 2022 U.S. Senate election by about 6 points.[6][7]

Brown was first elected in 2006, defeating then-incumbent U.S. Senator Mike DeWine, and has won reelection in 2012 and 2018.[8][9][10] Even with the state's Republican partisan lean, this race is expected to be highly competitive, as Brown is generally popular among Ohioans and polling thus far has mostly shown him with a slight lead.[11]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Presumptive nominee

Endorsements

Sherrod Brown
Organizations
Labor unions

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Sherrod Brown (D) $21,220,283 $11,358,424 $11,233,104
Source: Federal Election Commission[26]

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Sherrod Brown vs. Tim Ryan vs. Shontel Brown
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Sherrod
Brown		 Shontel
Brown		 Tim
Ryan		 Undecided
Ohio Northern University October 16–19, 2023 256 (LV)[lower-alpha 2] ± 8.3% 58% 6% 15% 21%
Ohio Northern University Jul 17–26, 2023 675 (RV) ± 3.7% 59% 7% 17% 17%

Results

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Sherrod Brown (incumbent)
Total votes

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Failed to qualify

  • Doug Stuart, retired businessman[30][12]

Declined

Endorsements

Matt Dolan
State representatives
Local officials
Notable individuals
Organizations
Frank LaRose
State representatives
Bernie Moreno
U.S. Presidents
U.S. Ambassadors
U.S. Senators
U.S Representatives
Individuals
Organizations
Declined to endorse
Statewide officials
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Matt Dolan (R) $8,784,660 $2,084,532 $6,746,717
Frank LaRose (R) $1,041,657 $172,978 $868,679
Bernie Moreno (R) $6,453,457 $1,446,523 $5,006,933
Source: Federal Election Commission[26]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Matt
Dolan		 Frank
LaRose		 Bernie
Moreno		 Other Undecided
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[upper-alpha 1] December 12–14, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 16% 18% 22% – 44%
SurveyUSA[upper-alpha 2] December 8–12, 2023 573 (LV) ± 4.6% 18% 33% 12% 1%[lower-alpha 3] 35%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates[upper-alpha 3] December 3–5, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 18% 19% 23% – 40%
co/efficient (R)[upper-alpha 3] November 18–20, 2023 950 (LV) ± 3.18% 13% 14% 15% – 58%
Emerson College/WJW-TV November 10–13, 2023 468 (LV) ± 4.5% 15% 18% 10% 32%[lower-alpha 4] 25%
Data for Progress (D) October 31 – November 2, 2023 294 (LV) ± 6.0% 20% 30% 7% 0%[lower-alpha 5] 43%
Ohio Northern University October 16–19, 2023 269 (LV)[lower-alpha 6] ± 8.2% 13% 30% 7% 2% 49%
Ohio Northern University July 17–26, 2023 675 (RV) ± 3.7% 18% 32% 7% 1% 43%
Suffolk/USA Today July 9–12, 2023 190 (RV) – 14% 19% 9% – 57%
East Carolina University June 21–24, 2023 405 (RV) ± 4.0% 14% 17% 7% 4% 58%
Causeway Solutions (R)[upper-alpha 4] May 19–27, 2023 526 (RV) ± 2.5% 11% 24% 6% 17% 42%

Results

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Matt Dolan
Republican Frank LaRose
Republican Bernie Moreno
Total votes

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[58] Tossup November 9, 2023
Inside Elections[59] Tossup November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[60] Tossup November 9, 2023
Elections Daily[61] Tossup May 4, 2023
CNalysis[62] Tossup December 21, 2023

Polling

Sherrod Brown vs. Matt Dolan
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Sherrod
Brown (D)		 Matt
Dolan (R)		 Other Undecided
Emerson/WJW-TV November 10–13, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 38% - 22%
Data for Progress (D) October 31–November 2, 2023 597 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 46% - 7%
Ohio Northern University October 16–19, 2023 668 (RV) ± 3.8% 45% 30% 0% 25%
Emerson College October 1–3, 2023 438 (RV) ± 4.5% 36% 38% – 26%
Ohio Northern University July 17–26, 2023 675 (RV) ± 3.7% 45% 33% 0% 22%
Suffolk University July 9–12, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 43% – 11%
East Carolina University June 21–24, 2023 805 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 44% 4% 7%
Sherrod Brown vs. Frank LaRose
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Sherrod
Brown (D)		 Frank
LaRose (R)		 Other Undecided
Emerson/WJW-TV November 10–13, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 36% - 24%
Data for Progress (D) October 31 – November 2, 2023 597 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 46% - 8%
Ohio Northern University October 16–19, 2023 668 (RV) ± 3.8% 44% 31% 0% 25%
Emerson College October 1–3, 2023 438 (RV) ± 4.5% 38% 39% – 23%
Ohio Northern University July 17–26, 2023 675 (RV) ± 3.7% 45% 32% 0% 23%
Suffolk University July 9–12, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 45% – 10%
East Carolina University June 21–24, 2023 805 (RV) ± 4.0% 44% 42% 4% 11%
Sherrod Brown vs. Bernie Moreno
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Sherrod
Brown (D)		 Bernie
Moreno (R)		 Other Undecided
Emerson/WJW-TV November 10–13, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 32% - 26%
Data for Progress (D) October 31 – November 2, 2023 597 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 44% - 9%
Ohio Northern University October 16–19, 2023 668 (RV) ± 3.8% 48% 26% 1% 25%
Emerson College October 1–3, 2023 438 (RV) ± 4.5% 35% 33% – 32%
Ohio Northern University July 17–26, 2023 675 (RV) ± 3.7% 45% 28% 0% 27%
Suffolk University July 9–12, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 48% 41% – 10%
East Carolina University June 21–24, 2023 805 (RV) ± 4.0% 46% 42% 2% 11%
Hypothetical polling
Sherrod Brown vs. Joel Mutchler
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Sherrod
Brown (D)		 Joel
Mutchler (R)		 Other Undecided
Data for Progress (D) October 31 – November 2, 2023 597 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 43% - 9%
Sherrod Brown vs. generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Sherrod
Brown (D)		 Generic
Republican		 Undecided
Causeway Solutions (R)[upper-alpha 4] May 19–27, 2023 1639 (RV) ± 2.5% 39% 37% 24%

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ A subset of poll respondents who said they planned to vote in the Democratic primary
  3. ↑ Joel Mutchler with 1%
  4. ↑ "Someone else" with 29%; Joel Mutchler with 3%
  5. ↑ Joel Mutchler with 0%
  6. ↑ A subset of poll respondents who said they planned to vote in the Republican primary
Partisan clients
  1. ↑ Poll sponsored by Buckeye Values PAC, which supports Moreno
  2. ↑ Poll sponsored by the Center for Election Science
  3. 1 2 Poll sponsored by Moreno's campaign
  4. 1 2 Poll sponsored by Leadership for Ohio Fund, which supports LaRose

References

  1. ↑ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
  2. 1 2 Tobias, Andrew (September 13, 2022). "Ohio's Sen. Sherrod Brown says he's running for reelection in 2024". The Plain Dealer. Retrieved September 16, 2022.
  3. ↑ Everett, Burgess (August 2, 2022). "GOP eyes 2024 payback for Manchin's Dems-only deal". Politico. Retrieved August 29, 2022.
  4. ↑ "GOP dominates Ohio's statewide midterm races". WOSU-FM. Retrieved May 5, 2023.
  5. ↑ DeWitt, David (November 9, 2022). "Ohio Democrats pick up one U.S. Congressional seat in midterm election". Ohio Capital Journal. Retrieved May 5, 2023.
  6. ↑ Dorman, John. "Republican JD Vance has a narrow edge over Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan in the Ohio Senate race: poll". Business Insider. Retrieved August 29, 2022.
  7. ↑ "Republican J.D. Vance defeats Democrat Tim Ryan in Ohio Senate race, NBC News projects". CNBC.
  8. ↑ "CNN.com - Elections 2006". CNN. Retrieved May 5, 2023.
  9. ↑ "2012 Ohio Senate Results". Politico. Retrieved May 5, 2023.
  10. ↑ "Ohio U.S. Senate Election Results". The New York Times. January 18, 2019. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved May 5, 2023.
  11. ↑ Yokley, Eli (January 11, 2023). "Kyrsten Sinema Remains Among America's Most Unpopular Senators After Party Switch". Morning Consult. Retrieved March 18, 2023.
  12. 1 2 3 4 5 "SECRETARY LAROSE ANNOUNCES CANDIDATES CERTIFIED FOR THE MARCH 19 PRIMARY". Ohio Secretary of State. January 9, 2024. Retrieved January 12, 2024.
  13. ↑ "Senate Candidates". Council for a Livable World. Retrieved October 4, 2023.
  14. 1 2 "End Citizens United // Let America Vote Endorses Senator Brown for Reelection". End Citizens United. March 30, 2023. Retrieved April 1, 2023.
  15. ↑ "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". Feminist Majority Foundation PAC. Retrieved April 11, 2023.
  16. ↑ "JDCA Announces First Round of 2024 Senate Endorsements". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
  17. ↑ "Meet JAC's 2024 Candidates | Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs". jacpac.org. Archived from the original on September 1, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
  18. ↑ "Sherrod Brown". JStreetPAC. Retrieved August 26, 2023.
  19. ↑ "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of Congressional Endorsements". League of Conservation Voters. Retrieved July 27, 2023.
  20. ↑ Dison, Denis (September 20, 2023). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 51 House, Senate Incumbents". NRDC Action Fund. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
  21. ↑ "Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorses Reproductive Rights Champions Baldwin, Brown, Gillibrand, Rosen, Tester for Re-Election in 2024". Planned Parenthood Action. Retrieved July 31, 2023.
  22. ↑ "2024 Endorsements". Population Connection Action Fund. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
  23. ↑ Weixel, Nathaniel (December 12, 2023). "Leading abortion rights group endorses Sherrod Brown for reelection". The Hill. Retrieved December 12, 2023.
  24. ↑ "Our Recommended Candidates". Education Votes. Retrieved November 20, 2023.
  25. ↑ "ENDORSEMENTS - North Shore Federation of Labor". North Shore AFL-CIO. January 1, 2023. Retrieved March 2, 2023.
  26. 1 2 "2024 Election United States Senate - Ohio". Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
  27. ↑ BeMiller, Haley (January 16, 2023). "Ohio Sen. Matt Dolan announces 2024 U.S. Senate bid against Sherrod Brown". The Columbus Dispatch. Retrieved January 18, 2023.
  28. ↑ Beavers, Olivia (July 17, 2023). "Ohio's messy GOP Senate primary gets a third candidate". Politico. Retrieved July 17, 2023.
  29. ↑ Rouan, Rick (April 18, 2023). "Bernie Moreno launches U.S. Senate campaign to unseat Sherrod Brown". The Plain Dealer. Retrieved April 18, 2023.
  30. ↑ "PROSPECTIVE CANDIDATES FILE PETITIONS FOR 2024 OHIO PRIMARY ELECTION". Ohio Secretary of State. December 20, 2023. Retrieved December 21, 2023.
  31. ↑ Tobias, Andrew J. (May 30, 2023). "Ohio congressman declines to run in 2024 Republican U.S. Senate primary". The Plain Dealer. Retrieved May 30, 2023.
  32. 1 2 BeMiller, Haley (January 4, 2024). "After mulling Ohio Senate bid, Rep. Warren Davidson backs Trump pick Bernie Moreno". The Cincinnati Enquirer. Archived from the original on January 4, 2024.
  33. 1 2 Zuckerman, Jake (April 25, 2023). "DeWine gets behind an August election to make constitutional amendments harder: Capitol Letter". The Plain Dealer. Retrieved August 6, 2023. Mark Kvamme, a Columbus venture capitalist and former JobsOhio CEO, has sometimes been mentioned as a potential Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in 2024. But 'that's not going to happen,' Kvamme told Capitol Letter on Monday. Kvamme said he's instead backing Cleveland car dealer/2022 U.S. Senate candidate Bernie Moreno
  34. ↑ Gomez, Henry (November 16, 2022). "Another bruising Senate race brews in Ohio as Republicans target Sherrod Brown". NBC News. Retrieved November 16, 2022. 'Josh is not running for Senate in 2024 and has no plans to return to politics,' Scott Guthrie, Mandel's longtime political aide, wrote in a text message responding on his behalf.
  35. ↑ Sewell, Dan (January 17, 2023). "Anti-woke crusader mulls political future". The Cincinnati Enquirer. Retrieved January 30, 2023. He decided against running in the 2022 Senate race won by Vance, and he's not gearing up to run for Senate next year.
  36. ↑ Severi, Misty; Roth, Samantha-Jo (March 22, 2023). "Vivek Ramaswamy announces candidacy for 2024 presidential election". Washington Examiner. Retrieved February 21, 2023.
  37. ↑ Gomez, Henry J. (August 6, 2023). "High-stakes Ohio ballot measure sets the stage for another hostile Senate race". NBC News. Retrieved September 18, 2023.
  38. 1 2 LaRosa, Angela (May 13, 2023). "Candidate: 'Best suited' to oust Sen. Brown". The Courier. Retrieved May 16, 2023.
  39. 1 2 Mutnick, Ally (August 23, 2023). "Cleveland Browns owners take sides in Ohio Senate GOP primary". Politico. Retrieved September 18, 2023.
  40. 1 2 Tobias, Andrew J. (September 15, 2023). "Ohio redistricting still held up over GOP leadership squabble: Capitol Letter". The Plain Dealer. Retrieved September 22, 2023.
  41. ↑ Tobias, Andrew J. (September 22, 2023). "Judge pauses Ohio law overhauling state school board: Capitol Letter". The Plain Dealer. Retrieved September 22, 2023.
  42. ↑ Conradis, Brandon (December 19, 2023). "Trump endorses Bernie Moreno in Ohio Senate race". The Hill. Retrieved December 19, 2023.
  43. ↑ Kassel, Matthew (April 19, 2023). "Bernie Moreno's Senate candidacy to test MAGA strength in Ohio". Jewish Insider. Retrieved September 26, 2023.
  44. ↑ Staff, J. I. (July 24, 2023). "Daily Kickoff: Showdown in Israel as Knesset votes on 'reasonableness' clause". Jewish Insider. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
  45. ↑ "2024 Senate showdown: New endorsement in Ohio's GOP primary battle in race to flip blue seat". Fox News. Retrieved November 28, 2023.
  46. 1 2 Gomez, Henry J. (January 8, 2024). "Jim Jordan endorses Trump-backed Bernie Moreno in messy Ohio Senate primary". NBC News. Retrieved January 8, 2024.
  47. ↑ "Marco Rubio endorses Bernie Moreno in tight Ohio Senate race". Washington Examiner. August 2, 2023. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
  48. ↑ "First on Fox: Trump ally Sen JD Vance endorses in Ohio's 2024 GOP Senate primary, backing Bernie Moreno". Fox News. Retrieved May 22, 2023.
  49. ↑ "EXCLUSIVE: Sen. Roger Marshall Endorses Trump-Backed Candidate Bernie Moreno In Ohio Senate Primary". Daily Caller. Retrieved January 11, 2023.
  50. ↑ Gillespie, Brandon. "Former Navy SEAL seeking to oust three-term Democratic senator builds momentum with more big-name support". Fox News.
  51. ↑ Tobias, Andrew J. (June 2, 2023). "Pro-State Issue 1 campaign details strategy in closed-door meeting: Capitol Letter". The Plain Dealer.
  52. ↑ Poling, Hannah (August 7, 2023). "Kari Lake Endorses Republican Businessman Bernie Moreno for U.S. Senate at Ohio GOP Rally". The Ohio Star. Retrieved August 8, 2023.
  53. ↑ Holt, Matt (January 3, 2024). "Club for Growth PAC Backs Ohio Republican Bernie Moreno in Key Senate Primary". The Messenger. Retrieved January 4, 2024.
  54. ↑ "2024 Endorsements". Turning Point Action. Retrieved May 16, 2023.
  55. ↑ Boney, Stan (December 27, 2023). "Ohio leader talks marijuana, jobs and 2026 governor's race". WKBN-TV. Retrieved January 2, 2024. 'I don't intend on endorsing in the Senate race'...Husted said.
  56. ↑ Tobias, Andrew J. (December 1, 2023). "Ohio Republican Party endorses Donald Trump in 2024 election". The Plain Dealer. Retrieved January 2, 2024. The party issued no other primary election endorsements on Friday, including in the heated Republican Party for U.S. Senate
  57. ↑ Mueller, Julia (July 19, 2023). "Ohio GOP braces for critical primary in bid to oust Sherrod Brown". The Hill. Retrieved September 26, 2023. The chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), told CBS News last week that his group...plans to stay neutral in the Ohio race.
  58. ↑ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
  59. ↑ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  60. ↑ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
  61. ↑ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
  62. ↑ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
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