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The 2024 United States presidential election in Michigan is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Michigan voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Michigan has 15 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat.[1] Michigan is considered to be a crucial swing state in 2024.
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term.[2]
Primary elections
Democratic primary
The Michigan Democratic primary is scheduled to be held on February 27, 2024.
Republican primary
The Michigan Republican primary is scheduled to be held on February 27, 2024.
General election
Polling
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Insyght | January 4–10, 2024 | 800 (RV) | – | 45% | 41% | 14% |
| Glengariff Group[upper-alpha 1] | January 2–6, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 47% | 14% |
| John Zogby Strategies | January 2–4, 2024 | 602 (LV) | – | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| CNN/SSRS | November 29 – December 6, 2023 | 1,197 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 40% | 50% | 10% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 703 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 46% | 12% |
| EPIC-MRA | November 10–16, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 46% | 13% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 700 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 43% | 14% |
| Emerson College | October 30 – November 4, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 41% | 16% |
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 616 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 48% | 9% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | October 5–10, 2023 | 706 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | October 7–9, 2023 | 820 (LV) | – | 41% | 41% | 17% |
| Marketing Resource Group | October 2–8, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 35% | 42% | 22% |
| Emerson College | October 1–4, 2023 | 468 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 44% | 43% | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 2] | September 26–27, 2023 | 679 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 44% | 8% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research | September 7–12, 2023 | 700 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 43% | 11% |
| EPIC-MRA | August 6–11, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| Emerson College | August 1–2, 2023 | 1,121 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 44% | 44% | 13% |
| Mitchell Research[upper-alpha 3] | July 11–13, 2023 | 639 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 43% | 13% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 4] | Jul 8–10, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.38% | 45% | 44% | 9% |
| EPIC-MRA | June 8–14, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | April 17–19, 2023 | 500 (V) | ± 3.6% | 45% | 42% | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 5] | December 6–7, 2022 | 763 (V) | ± 3.6% | 50% | 43% | 7% |
| EPIC-MRA | November 30 – December 6, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 43% | 10% |
| Emerson College | October 28–31, 2022 | 900 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| Emerson College | October 12–14, 2022 | 580 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| EPIC-MRA | September 15–19, 2022 | 600 (LV) | – | 48% | 44% | 8% |
| Blueprint Polling (D) | August 15–16, 2022 | 611 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 41% | 19% |
| Blueprint Polling (D) | February 1–4, 2022 | 632 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 38% | 40% | 22% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[upper-alpha 6] | November 11–16, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 53% | 6% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 703 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 35% | 39% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 13% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNN/SSRS | November 29 – December 6, 2023 | 1,197 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 31% | 39% | 20% | 6% | 4% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 700 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 37% | 10% | 2% | 13% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | December 28–30, 2023 | 832 (LV) | – | 37% | 39% | 9% | 15% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 27–29, 2023 | 874 (LV) | – | 38% | 39% | 9% | 13% |
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 616 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 31% | 34% | 26% | 9% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | October 7–9, 2023 | 820 (LV) | – | 38% | 40% | 7% | 15% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | August 1–2, 2023 | 1,121 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 41% | 43% | 4% | 11% |
- Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNN/SSRS | November 29 – December 6, 2023 | 1,197 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 42% | 49% | 9% |
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 616 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research | September 7–12, 2023 | 700 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 42% | 10% |
| Mitchell Research[upper-alpha 3] | July 11–13, 2023 | 639 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 31% | 25% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 4] | July 8–10, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.38% | 44% | 46% | 7% |
| EPIC-MRA | June 8–14, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 45% | 11% |
| The Dispatch | April 17–19, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
- Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 27–29, 2023 | 874 (LV) | – | 39% | 30% | 13% | 2% | 15% |
- Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glengariff Group[upper-alpha 7] | January 2–6, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 34% | 44% | 22% |
| CNN/SSRS | November 29 – December 6, 2023 | 1,197 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 38% | 50% | 12% |
| EPIC-MRA | November 10–16, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 47% | 17% |
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 616 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 36% | 46% | 18% |
- Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 27–29, 2023 | 874 (LV) | – | 37% | 25% | 18% | 3% | 17% |
Hypothetical polling
- Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 616 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
- Gretchen Whitmer vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Gretchen Whitmer Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marketing Resource Group | October 2–8, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 40% | 13% |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[3] | Tossup | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[4] | Tilt D | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[5] | Lean D | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[6] | Tossup | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[7] | Tossup | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[8] | Lean R (flip) | January 14, 2024 |
See also
Notes
- Partisan clients
- ↑ Poll commissioned by The Detroit News & WDIV-TV
- ↑ Poll commissioned by Save My Country Action Fund
- 1 2 Poll commissioned by MIRS
- 1 2 Poll commissioned by Citizens Awareness Project
- ↑ Poll sponsored by Progress Michigan, a sponsor for the Democratic Party
- ↑ Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign
- ↑ Poll commissioned by The Detroit News & WDIV-TV
References
- ↑ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ↑ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
- ↑ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ↑ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ↑ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ↑ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ↑ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ↑ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
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