2024 United States presidential election in Iowa
November 5, 2024
 
Party Republican Democratic
Incumbent President

Joe Biden
Democratic


The 2024 United States presidential election in Iowa is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Iowa voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Iowa has six electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1] While Iowa was considered both a swing and a bellwether state for decades, it voted significantly more Republican than the nation-at-large in both 2016 and 2020 and probably won't be as contested by the Democrats as Donald Trump won the state by a comfortable margin while losing nationally in the latter election. Furthermore, during the 2022 elections, all three statewide incumbent Republicans (governor, secretary of agriculture, and secretary of state) won reelection by more than 18%, two of three statewide incumbent Democrats (28-year incumbent attorney general and 40-year incumbent treasurer) lost to Republican challengers, and the remaining incumbent Democrat (4-year incumbent auditor) won by less than 3,000 votes and 0.23%, further signifying Iowa's rightward shift.[2][3]

In April 2023, incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden officially announced a re-election campaign for 2024.[4] If he wins without the state again, he will become the first president since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944 to win another term without carrying the state.

Caucuses

Democratic caucus

During the Iowa Democratic caucuses this year, in-person caucusing focusing only on party business will be held on January 15, but voting on candidates would be done exclusively via mail-in ballots from January 12 until Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. This was the result of a compromise between the Iowa Democratic Party and the Democratic National Committee (DNC). Iowa traditionally holds its race first during the presidential primary and caucuses season, but the DNC originally wanted South Carolina to instead hold its race first on February 3.[5]

Republican caucus

The Iowa Republican caucuses will be held on January 15, 2024.

Libertarian caucus

The Iowa Libertarian caucuses will be held on January 15, 2024, its first as a recognized party in the state.[6]

General election

Polling

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Other /
Undecided
Emerson College December 15–17, 2023 1,094 (RV) ± 2.9% 48% 40% 12%
Emerson College May 19–22, 2023 1,064 (RV) ± 2.9% 49% 38% 13%
Emerson College October 2–4, 2022 959 (LV) ± 3.1% 47% 39% 14%
Cygnal (R)[upper-alpha 1] October 2–4, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 41% 8%
Cygnal (R)[upper-alpha 1] July 13–14, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 40% 9%
Cygnal (R) Archived 2022-02-28 at the Wayback Machine[upper-alpha 1] February 20–22, 2022 610 (LV) ± 3.9% 53% 38% 9%
Selzer & Co. November 7–10, 2021 658 (LV) ± 3.8% 51% 40% 9%
Cygnal (R)[upper-alpha 1] October 18–19, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 54% 41% 5%
Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Ron
DeSantis
Republican		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Other /
Undecided
Emerson College May 19–22, 2023 1,064 (RV) ± 2.9% 45% 38% 17%

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
Partisan clients
  1. 1 2 3 4 This poll was sponsored by the Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation

References

  1. ↑ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
  2. ↑ "Iowa Election Results and Maps 2022 | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
  3. ↑ Murray, Isabella. "The congressional race that could indicate just how red Iowa has shifted". ABC News. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
  4. ↑ "Biden announces he is running for re-election, framing 2024 as a choice between 'more rights or fewer'". NBC News. April 25, 2023. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
  5. ↑ "DNC's new calendar, will release caucus results on Super Tuesday". Iowa Public Radio. October 6, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  6. ↑ "Libertarian Party of Iowa announces it will hold caucuses Jan. 15".
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