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The 2024 United States presidential election in Arizona is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Arizona voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Arizona has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1] Arizona is considered to be a crucial swing state in 2024.
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term.[2] If he wins the state again, he will become the first Democrat since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944 to carry the state in two consecutive presidential elections. This race is considered to be a tossup given the state's nearly even partisan lean.
Primary elections
Democratic primary
The Arizona Democratic primary is scheduled to be held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Florida, Illinois, and Ohio.
Republican primary
The Arizona Republican primary is scheduled to be held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Florida, Illinois, and Ohio.
General election
Polling
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Bullfinch Group | December 14–18, 2023 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 50% | 10% |
| VCreek/AMG (R)[upper-alpha 1] | December 1–8, 2023 | 694 (RV) | – | 41% | 46% | 13% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 796 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 46% | 12% |
| Tulchin Research (D) | November 13–20, 2023 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 42% | 42% | 16% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 46% | 12% |
| Emerson College | October 30 – November 4, 2023 | 1000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 43% | 16% |
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 603 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 49% | 7% |
| Noble Predictive Insights | October 25–31, 2023 | 1,010 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 38% | 46% | 16% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | October 5–10, 2023 | 804 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 47% | 10% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | October 7–9, 2023 | 627 (RV) | – | 39% | 44% | 16% |
| Emerson College | August 2–4, 2023 | 1,337 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 43% | 45% | 13% |
| Public Opinion Strategies | July 22–24, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 44% | 8% |
| Public Opinion Strategies | June 17–19, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 41% | 11% |
| Public Opinion Strategies | May 15–17, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 44% | 10% |
| Public Opinion Strategies | April 11–13, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[upper-alpha 2] | March 13–14, 2023 | 1,001 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 50% | 11% |
| OH Predictive Insights | January 31 – February 9, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 39% | 37% | 24% |
| Blueprint Polling (D) | January 5–8, 2023 | 618 (V) | ± 3.9% | 35% | 38% | 27% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | November 8–9, 2022 | 874 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
| Targoz Market Research | November 2–6, 2022 | 560 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 45% | 53% | 2% |
| Emerson College | October 30 – November 1, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 46% | 12% |
| Emerson College | September 6–7, 2022 | 627 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 41% | 44% | 15% |
| Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 773 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 43% | 47% | 10% |
| Blueprint Polling (D) | May 12–16, 2022 | 608 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 41% | 18% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[upper-alpha 3] | November 11–16, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 51% | 6% |
| Bendixen/Amandi International | June 17–23, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 44% | 5% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Joe Manchin
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Joe Manchin Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VCreek/AMG (R)[upper-alpha 4] | December 1–8, 2023 | 694 (RV) | – | 32% | 40% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 10% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 796 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 40% | 10% | 1% | 1% | 11% |
| J.L. Partners/Daily Mail | November 27 – December 1, 2023 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 39% | 44% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 12%[lower-alpha 2] |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 40% | 11% | 1% | 12% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VCreek/AMG (R)[upper-alpha 5] | December 1–8, 2023 | 694 (RV) | – | 35% | 40% | 16% | 9% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 27–29, 2023 | 1,103 (LV) | – | 33% | 40% | 10% | 17% |
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22– November 3, 2023 | 603 (LV) | ±4.4 | 33% | 33% | 26% | 8% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | October 7–9, 2023 | 627 (LV) | – | 37% | 42% | 8% | 12% |
- Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 27–29, 2023 | 1,103 (LV) | – | 34% | 27% | 17% | 6% | 16% |
- Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 27–29, 2023 | 1,103 (LV) | – | 33% | 25% | 19% | 6% | 17% |
- Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 603 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 46% | 12% |
| Noble Predictive Insights | October 25 – 31, 2023 | 1,010 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 37% | 40% | 23% |
| Public Opinion Strategies | July 22–24, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 39% | 46% | 12% |
| Public Opinion Strategies | June 17–19, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 40% | 46% | 12% |
| Public Opinion Strategies | May 15–17, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 47% | 10% |
| Public Opinion Strategies | April 11–13, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 48% | 10% |
| OH Predictive Insights | January 31 – February 9, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 35% | 36% | 29% |
| Blueprint Polling (D) | January 5–8, 2023 | 618 (V) | ± 3.9% | 37% | 43% | 20% |
| Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 773 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 43% | 43% | 14% |
- Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VCreek/AMG (R)[upper-alpha 6] | December 1–8, 2023 | 694 (RV) | – | 30% | 37% | 33% |
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 603 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 37% | 46% | 17% |
- Joe Biden vs. Mike Pence
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Mike Pence Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies | May 15–17, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 43% | 12% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | August 2–4, 2023 | 1,337 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 41% | 42% | 4% | 13% |
- Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 603 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[3] | Tossup | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[4] | Tossup | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[5] | Tossup | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[6] | Tossup | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[7] | Tossup | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[8] | Tossup | January 14, 2024 |
See also
Notes
- Partisan clients
- ↑ Poll sponsored by Americas PAC
- ↑ Poll sponsored by College Republicans United
- ↑ Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign
- ↑ Poll sponsored by Americas PAC
- ↑ Poll sponsored by Americas PAC
- ↑ Poll sponsored by Americas PAC
References
- ↑ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ↑ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
- ↑ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ↑ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ↑ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ↑ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ↑ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ↑ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
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