2024 United States Senate election in Montana
November 5, 2024
 
Party Democratic Republican
Incumbent U.S. senator

Jon Tester
Democratic


The 2024 United States Senate election in Montana will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Montana. Incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Tester is seeking a fourth term in office. This race is one of three Democratic-held U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2024 in a state Donald Trump won in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, alongside Ohio and West Virginia. Tester's re-election is considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain the Senate majority in 2024.[1] Primary elections will take place on June 4, 2024.[2]

Background

Montana is a strongly red state at the federal level, voting for Republican presidential candidates in each election starting in 1996, when Bob Dole beat Bill Clinton by nearly 3 percentage points in a three-way race with Ross Perot. Since then, GOP candidates have won the White House race in the State by double digits in every race except in 2008.

In the most recent presidential election, in 2020, Donald Trump beat Joe Biden in Montana by 56.92% to 40.55%. For all these reasons, the race is expected to be one of the most competitive of the 2024 cycle, as Tester is broadly popular with Montana voters despite the state's partisan lean,[3] and Montana's historical inclination to ticket-split.[4]

On April 4, 2023, Montana's State Senate passed a bill to institute a top-two primary system, but only for the 2024 U.S. Senate race. The bill's sponsor, Republican Greg Hertz, said it would require the winner of the 2024 Senate race to receive a majority of the vote. Incumbent Democrat Jon Tester won with a plurality of the vote in his 2006 and 2012 Senate campaigns, though he won a majority in 2018. Both Democrats and Libertarians alleged the bill was intended to prevent the Libertarian Party from placing a nominee on the general election ballot in the Senate race who could potentially pull votes away from the Republican nominee, with Democratic state senator Ryan Lynch calling it a "partisan power grab."[5][6] FiveThirtyEight's Nathaniel Rakich questioned whether the Libertarian Party had truly cost Republicans the 2006 and 2012 races, pointing out that Republicans would have needed to win the Libertarian vote overwhelmingly in order to beat Tester in a one-on-one race and that many Libertarians might not have voted in the race at all without a Libertarian on the ballot.[7]

The New York Times reported that the bill was the brainchild of Montana's other senator Steve Daines, the chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, and that his allies urged Republican state senators to support it; one legislator said they were outright told by Republican officials that the bill was intended to weaken Tester. After the bill received backlash, Hertz introduced an amendment to make the use of a top-two primary for U.S. Senate elections permanent rather than sunsetting it after the 2024 race.[8] The Montana House of Representatives State Administration Committee tabled the bill on April 19.[9] An attempt to revive the bill failed, and the legislature adjourned without passing it, conclusively ending the push for a top-two primary.[10]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Endorsements

Jon Tester
U.S. senators
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Jon Tester (D) $19,654,678 $7,131,531 $13,003,720
Source: Federal Election Commission[25]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Publicly expressed interest

Withdrew

  • Jeremy Mygland, businessman (endorsed Rosendale, running for state senate)[29]

Declined

Endorsements

Tim Sheehy
U.S. senators
Governors
U.S. representatives
Notable individuals
Organizations
Matt Rosendale[lower-alpha 1]
State legislators

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Tim Sheehy (R) $2,872,386 $1,748,408 $1,123,978
Source: Federal Election Commission[25]

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Russell
Fagg		 Brad
Johnson		 Matt
Rosendale		 Tim
Sheehy		 Corey
Stapleton		 Ryan
Zinke		 Other/Undecided
co/efficient (R) November 12–14, 2023 888 (LV) ± 3.28% – – 24% 40% – – 36%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates October 23–25, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% – 6% 35% 38% – – 21%[lower-alpha 3]
0% 0% 41% 44% – – 15%
J.L. Partners August 12–17, 2023 418 (LV) ? – – 52% 21% – – 28%
Public Policy Polling (D) June 19–20, 2023 510 (LV) ± 4.3% – – 64% 10% – – 26%
OnMessage Inc. (R) February 18–21, 2023 600 (LV)[lower-alpha 4] ± 4.0% 2% – 36% 2% 6% 26% 28%

Libertarian primary

Declared

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[47] Tossup November 30, 2023
Inside Elections[48] Tossup November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[49] Tossup November 9, 2023
Elections Daily[50] Tossup May 4, 2023
CNalysis[51] Tossup November 21, 2023

Polling

Jon Tester vs. Tim Sheehy
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Jon
Tester (D)		 Tim
Sheehy (R)		 Other Undecided
Emerson College October 1–4, 2023 447 (RV) ± 4.6% 39% 35% 6% 21%
J.L. Partners August 12–17, 2023 741 (LV) ? 42% 46% – 12%
Hypothetical polling
Jon Tester vs. Greg Gianforte
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Jon
Tester (D)		 Greg
Gianforte (R)		 Undecided
Political Company (R) January 30 – February 1, 2023 534 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 45% 10%
Jon Tester vs. Matt Rosendale
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Jon
Tester (D)		 Matt
Rosendale (R)		 Other Undecided
J.L. Partners August 12–17, 2023 741 (LV) ? 43% 46% – 11%
OnMessage Inc. (R) February 18–21, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 46% 5% 7%
Political Company (R) January 30 – February 1, 2023 534 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 40% – 15%
Jon Tester vs. Ryan Zinke
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Jon
Tester (D)		 Ryan
Zinke (R)		 Undecided
Political Company (R) January 30 – February 1, 2023 534 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 40% 14%

Notes

  1. ↑ Has not declared his candidacy
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ↑ Jeremy Mygland with 1%
  4. ↑ Oversample of 100 likely Republican primary voters

References

  1. ↑ Everett, Burgess (August 2, 2022). "GOP eyes 2024 payback for Manchin's Dems-only deal". Politico. Retrieved August 29, 2022.
  2. ↑ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
  3. ↑ Yokley, Eli (April 19, 2023). "Red-State Voters Give Democrats Tester, Manchin Opposite Marks Ahead of 2024". Morning Consult. Retrieved April 27, 2023.
  4. ↑ Coleman, J. Miles (February 2, 2023). "The Shocking Decline of Senate Ticket-Splitting". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved April 27, 2023.
  5. ↑ Kimbel-Sannit, Arren (April 3, 2023). "Senate passes bill creating top-two primary in Tester's 2024 U.S. Senate race".
  6. ↑ "Republicans seek to change Montana primary to thwart Tester". AP News. April 5, 2023. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
  7. ↑ Rakich, Nathaniel (April 10, 2023). "The GOP Is Trying To Tilt Montana's Senate Race In Its Favor. It Probably Won't Work". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
  8. ↑ Corasaniti, Nick (April 14, 2023). "Facing Tough Senate Race, Montana G.O.P. Looks to Change the Rules". The New York Times.
  9. ↑ Brown, Matthew (April 19, 2023). "Montana shelves GOP proposal to alter US Senate primary". Associated Press.
  10. ↑ Singer, Jeff. "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 5/3". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 6, 2023. The end of Montana's legislative session Tuesday night means that the GOP proposal to conduct the 2024 Senate election using top-two rules in order to weaken Democratic incumbent Jon Tester is officially dead...it passed the state Senate last month. A state House committee, though, tabled the measure weeks later, and an attempt to resurrect the top-two also failed a short time later.
  11. ↑ Concepcion, Summer (February 22, 2023). "Sen. Jon Tester to seek re-election in 2024". NBC News. Retrieved February 22, 2023.
  12. ↑ Everett, Burgess (April 7, 2023). "Montana beef: Bad blood intensifies between Tester and Daines". Politico. Retrieved April 8, 2023. Manchin is backing Tester and has tried to stop senator-vs.-senator campaign appearances, even previously endorsing two moderate Republicans.
  13. ↑ Rod, March (March 16, 2023). "AIPAC rolls out first 2024 endorsements, including vulnerable Senate Democrats". Jewish Insider. Retrieved July 13, 2023.
  14. ↑ "Senate Candidates". Council for a Livable World. Archived from the original on September 6, 2023. Retrieved September 6, 2023.
  15. 1 2 "End Citizens United // Let America Vote Endorses Senator Tester for Reelection". endcitizensunited.org (Press release). March 30, 2023. Retrieved July 13, 2023.
  16. ↑ "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved April 11, 2023.
  17. ↑ "JDCA Announces First Round of 2024 Senate Endorsements". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
  18. ↑ "Meet JAC's 2024 Candidates | Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs". jacpac.org. Archived from the original on September 1, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
  19. ↑ "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of Congressional Endorsements". League of Conservation Voters. Retrieved July 27, 2023.
  20. ↑ Dison, Denis (September 20, 2023). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 51 House, Senate Incumbents". NRDC Action Fund. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
  21. ↑ "Meet Our 2024 Candidates". Peace Action. Retrieved July 28, 2023.
  22. ↑ "Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorses Reproductive Rights Champions Baldwin, Brown, Gillibrand, Rosen, Tester for Re-Election in 2024". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org. Retrieved July 31, 2023.
  23. ↑ "2024 Endorsements". Population Connection Action Fund. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
  24. ↑ "Reproductive Freedom for All Endorses Sen. Jon Tester for Reelection to the U.S. Senate for Montana". Reproductive Freedom for All. December 13, 2023. Retrieved December 21, 2023.
  25. 1 2 "2024 Election United States Senate - Montana". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
  26. ↑ Rafferty, Melissa (October 18, 2023). "Brad Johnson announces he's running for U.S. Senate in Montana". KPAX-TV. Retrieved October 18, 2023.
  27. ↑ Warren, Bradley (June 27, 2023). "Tim Sheehy announces run for U.S. Senate in Montana". KULR-8 Local News. Retrieved June 27, 2023.
  28. ↑ McCaslin, John (October 25, 2023). "Matt Rosendale Sticks to His Guns". Flathead Beacon. Retrieved October 26, 2023.
  29. ↑ Ambarian, Jonathan (October 19, 2023). "Millions already spent in highly watched Montana U.S. Senate race". KTVH-DT. Retrieved October 26, 2023.
  30. 1 2 Vakil, Carolin (June 29, 2023). "Montana governor backs Tim Sheehy in Senate race". The Hill.
  31. 1 2 3 Warren, Bradley (July 5, 2023). "Congressman Ryan Zinke officially endorses Tim Sheehy for US Senate". Nonstop Local—ABC FOX. There was speculation Zinke could enter the race, but that speculation now shut down with this endorsement.
  32. ↑ Corrin, Noah; Warren, Bradley (July 10, 2023). "Montana Democrat Monica Tranel announces run for U.S. Congress". KTMF. Retrieved July 10, 2023. Zinke plans to run for reelection, setting up a potential rematch of the 2022 race.
  33. ↑ "No. 3 Senate Republican endorses Tim Sheehy in Montana in attempt to consolidate support". Washington Examiner. July 10, 2023. Retrieved July 13, 2023.
  34. ↑ Weaver, Al (June 27, 2023). "GOP gets its wish with Sheehy in Montana: 'A blank canvas with a big checkbook'". The Hill. Retrieved July 13, 2023.
  35. 1 2 "Tim Sheehy receives another major endorsement in Montana Senate bid to unseat Democrat Tester". Fox News. July 11, 2023.
  36. ↑ "Tom Cotton Endorses Tim Sheehy in Montana Senate Race". National Review. June 27, 2023.
  37. ↑ McCormack, John (June 27, 2023). "Montana's Steve Daines Endorses Former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy in Senate GOP Primary". The National Review. Retrieved June 27, 2023.
  38. ↑ "Senate Republicans try to stop messy Montana primary". Politico. June 28, 2023.
  39. ↑ "PUNCHBOWL NEWS: Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) is endorsing Tim Sheehy for Senate in Montana - Tim Sheehy". timformt.com. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
  40. ↑ "GOP goes all-out to avoid another Senate primary mess". Politico. July 11, 2023.
  41. ↑ Gillespie, Brandon. "Former Navy SEAL seeking to oust three-term Democratic senator builds momentum with more big-name support". Fox News.
  42. ↑ https://secure.winred.com/tim-sheehy-for-mt/nov-kac-h
  43. ↑ Action, A. F. P. (November 2, 2023). "Americans for Prosperity Action Endorses Tim Sheehy for U.S. Senate". AFP Action. Retrieved November 2, 2023.
  44. ↑ Action, N. R. S. C. (July 28, 2023). "NRSC-backed GOP Senate candidate Tim Sheehy makes first ad buy in Montana". Washington Examiner. Retrieved July 28, 2023.
  45. 1 2 Tully-McManus, Katherine; Mutnick, Ally (August 17, 2023). "Matt Rosendale nabbed two big Montana statehouse endorsements ahead of a potential Senate run". www.politico.com. Politico.
  46. ↑ Sagnor, Denali (November 14, 2023). "Kalispell Libertarian Sid Daoud Announces Third-Party Senate Run". Flathead Beacon. Retrieved November 16, 2023.
  47. ↑ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
  48. ↑ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  49. ↑ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
  50. ↑ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
  51. ↑ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
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