2024 California's 47th congressional district election
November 5, 2024
Incumbent U.S. Representative

Katie Porter
Democratic


The 2024 California's 47th congressional district election will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect the United States Representative for California's 47th congressional district, concurrently with elections for the other U.S. House districts in California and the rest of the country, as well as the 2024 U.S. Senate race in California, other elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The primary election will be held on March 5, 2024, concurrently with the Super Tuesday presidential primaries. The Southern California-based 47th district is centered in Orange County and includes the cities of Costa Mesa, Huntington Beach, Irvine, Newport Beach, and Seal Beach, as well as portions of Laguna Beach, Laguna Hills, and Laguna Woods.

The incumbent is Democrat Katie Porter, who was re-elected with 51.7% of the vote in 2022. She is not seeking re-election, instead choosing to run for the U.S. Senate.[1] Porter was first elected in 2018, unseating incumbent Republican Mimi Walters. She later gained national fame for her progressive politics and frequently went viral for grilling corporate executives during congressional hearings.[2]

The candidates leading in fundraising are state senator Dave Min and community activist Joanna Weiss, both Democrats, and former state assemblyman Scott Baugh and businessman Max Ukropina, both Republicans. Democratic former congressman Harley Rouda was previously in the race and led in fundraising, but dropped out due to complications from an injury. California State Board of Equalization member Mike Schaefer, also a Democrat, is a more recent entrant into the race.

The race is expected to be highly competitive as it is a slightly blue suburban district with no incumbent. Both House Democrats and House Republicans have listed California's 47th district among their highest-priority districts in the 2024 election.[3][4] Democrat Joe Biden won the district with 54.5% of the vote in the 2020 presidential election.[5]

Candidates

Scott Baugh
Dave Min

Declared

  • Scott Baugh (Republican), former state assemblyman, former chair of the Orange County Republican Party, and runner-up for this district in 2022[6]
  • Terry Crandall (No party preference), Santa Ana College economics professor[7]
  • Tom McGrath (No party preference), chemical engineer[7]
  • Dave Min (Democratic), state senator and candidate for this district[lower-alpha 1] in 2018[8]
  • Long Pham (Republican), former member of the Orange County Department of Education Board of Directors and perennial candidate[7]
  • Boyd Roberts (Democratic), realtor and perennial candidate[7]
  • Bill Smith (No party preference), retired attorney[7]
  • Max Ukropina (Republican), businessman and former aide to U.S. Representatives John Campbell and David Valadao[9]
  • Joanna Weiss (Democratic), community activist[10]
  • Shariq Zaidi (Democratic), security guard[7]

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Dom Jones (D) (withdrawn)
Individuals
Scott Baugh (R)
U.S. representatives
Local officials
Political parties
Organizations
Dave Min (D)
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
  • 24 state senators[27]
  • 33 state assemblymembers[27]
Political parties
Organizations
Labor unions
Harley Rouda (D) (withdrawn)
U.S. representatives
Local officials
Joanna Weiss (D)
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State assemblymembers
Local officials
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Dom Jones (D)[lower-alpha 2] $9,135 $7,329 $636
Dave Min (D) $1,236,179 $410,636 $825,542
Joanna Weiss (D) $1,231,555[lower-alpha 3] $398,916 $832,638
Scott Baugh (R) $1,500,882 $139,533 $1,374,856
James Brian Griffan (R) $100 $64 $35
Max Ukropina (R) $440,898 $117,801 $323,097
Source: Federal Election Commission[49]

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Scott Baugh vs. Dave Min
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 4]		 Margin
of error		 Scott
Baugh (R)		 Dave
Min (D)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 1] October 24–30, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 43% 42% 15%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 2] June 14–15, 2023 555 (LV) ± 4.2% 39% 37% 24%
Scott Baugh vs. Joanna Weiss
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 4]		 Margin
of error		 Scott
Baugh (R)		 Joanna
Weiss (D)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 1] October 24–30, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 42% 43% 15%

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[50] Lean D February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[51] Tilt D March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[52] Tossup February 23, 2023
Elections Daily[53] Likely D June 8, 2023
CNalysis[54] Lean D November 16, 2023

Notes

  1. 1 2 Poll conducted for Weiss's campaign
  2. ↑ This poll was conducted for Dave Min's campaign
  1. ↑ This district was numbered as the 45th district prior to the 2020 redistricting cycle.
  2. ↑ Withdrawn candidate
  3. ↑ $225,000 of this total was self-funded by Weiss
  4. 1 2 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

References

  1. 1 2 Schallhorn, Kaitlyn (January 10, 2023). "Rep. Katie Porter launches a U.S. Senate bid". The Orange County Register. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  2. ↑ Kang, Hanna (January 10, 2023). "Rep. Katie Porter's most viral moments in Congress". The Orange County Register.
  3. ↑ Ackley, Kate (March 10, 2023). "DCCC picks 29 'Frontline' members for extra help next year". Roll Call. Retrieved March 20, 2023.
  4. ↑ Gibson, Brittany (March 13, 2023). "Republicans release top targets of Democratic-held House seats in 2024". Politico. Retrieved March 20, 2023.
  5. ↑ "Daily Kos Elections' 2020 presidential results by congressional district, for new and old districts". Daily Kos. September 29, 2021. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
  6. ↑ Schallhorn, Kaitlyn (January 10, 2023). "Scott Baugh launches congressional bid for Rep. Katie Porter's seat". The Orange County Register. Retrieved January 20, 2023.
  7. 1 2 3 4 5 6 "Certified List of Candidates". California Secretary of State. December 28, 2023. Retrieved December 29, 2023.
  8. 1 2 3 Gans, Jared (January 18, 2023). "Dave Min announces bid for Porter's California House seat, nabs her endorsement". The Hill. Retrieved January 18, 2023.
  9. ↑ Nguyen, Lilly (April 10, 2023). "Newport Beach businessman announces bid for seat in CA-47". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved April 11, 2023.
  10. ↑ Nguyen, Lilly (February 8, 2023). "Community activist announces congressional bid in Orange County's already contested CA-47". Los Angeles Times.
  11. ↑ Frisk, Garrett (May 11, 2023). "California House Candidate Roundup: May 11, 2023". Diamond Eye Candidate Report. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
  12. ↑ Szabo, Matt (October 17, 2023). "Huntington Beach's Dom Jones pivots into State Assembly District 72 race". Daily Pilot.
  13. ↑ "Former Rep. Harley Rouda Withdraws Bid For Election Following Fall". Patch Media Newport Beach-Corona Del Mar, CA. City News Service. April 11, 2023.
  14. 1 2 White, Jeremy; Korte, Lara; Castanos, Ramon; Brown, Matthew (May 15, 2023). "Your California budget watchlist". Politico. Retrieved May 15, 2023.
  15. ↑ "Former Rep. Harley Rouda announces another Congressional bid". Los Angeles Times. January 11, 2023.
  16. 1 2 3 4 5 Schallhorn, Kaitlyn (May 24, 2023). "Supervisor Katrina Foley gets involved in congressional race, but not as a candidate". The Orange County Register. Retrieved May 24, 2023.
  17. ↑ Hooper, Kelly (January 10, 2023). "Katie Porter launches Senate campaign for Feinstein's seat". Politico.
  18. ↑ Klein, Howie (February 7, 2023). "Dom Jones Is Determined To Ensure Basic Human Rights For All". Blue America. Retrieved May 11, 2023.
  19. ↑ "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 5/16". Daily Kos. May 16, 2023. Retrieved May 18, 2023.
  20. ↑ Lesniewski, Niels; Altimari, Daniela; McIntire, Mary Ellen (May 11, 2023). "At the Races: Admakers (heart) NY". Roll Call. Retrieved May 11, 2023.
  21. ↑ Villalovas, Eden. "California state 2024 race shapes up as candidates vie to replace Katie Porter". Washington Examiner. Retrieved January 5, 2024.
  22. 1 2 "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 5/8". Daily Kos. May 8, 2023. Retrieved May 18, 2023.
  23. ↑ "Reform California Releases Its First Round of Voter Guide Endorsements for the 2024 Election". reformcalifornia.org. Archived from the original on August 29, 2023. Retrieved August 29, 2023.
  24. ↑ "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 4/4". Daily Kos. April 4, 2023. Retrieved May 18, 2023.
  25. 1 2 3 4 "California Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis endorses Dave Min for Congress". OC Breeze. March 28, 2023. Archived from the original on March 30, 2023. Retrieved March 30, 2023.
  26. ↑ "Healthcare Workers Endorse State Senator Dave Min – The Liberal OC". Retrieved December 21, 2023.
  27. 1 2 3 4 Bajko, Matthew S. (September 27, 2023). "Political Notebook: Amid Orange County LGBTQ backlash, House candidate Min remains an advocate". Bay Area Reporter. Retrieved September 28, 2023.
  28. ↑ "Attorney General Rob Bonta endorses Dave Min for Congress". Orange County Breeze. January 25, 2023. Archived from the original on January 27, 2023. Retrieved May 18, 2023.
  29. 1 2 Gardiner, Dustin; Korte, Lara (October 5, 2023). "Who is, and isn't, speaking at Feinstein's funeral: Lt. Gov Shares the Love". Politico. Retrieved October 6, 2023.
  30. ↑ "California State Treasurer Fiona Ma endorses Dave Min for Congress". Orange County Breeze. February 2, 2023. Archived from the original on March 4, 2023. Retrieved March 4, 2023.
  31. 1 2 3 "SEIU endorses Dave Min for Congress". Orange County Breeze. March 16, 2023. Archived from the original on March 17, 2023. Retrieved March 16, 2023.
  32. ↑ "Primary Endorsements" (PDF). California Democratic Party. November 19, 2023. Retrieved November 20, 2023.
  33. ↑ "Asian American Action Fund Endorses California State Senator Dave Min for California's 47th Congressional District". Asian American Action Fund. February 23, 2023. Retrieved May 18, 2023.
  34. ↑ AAPI Victory Fund [@aapivictoryfund] (May 12, 2023). "We are proud to endorse @davemin_ca for California's 47th Congressional District. Dave is running for Congress to defend the American Dream and fight for the hard-working constituents of CA-47. We stand with Dave to protect progressive values in Congress". Instagram. AAPI Victory Fund. Retrieved May 18, 2023.
  35. ↑ Kang, Hanna (February 8, 2023). "AAPI groups focus on the CA-47 race, viewing it as a potential pickup in 2024". The Orange County Register. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
  36. ↑ Chmielewski, Dan (September 8, 2023). "Min and Porter Big Winners of DGI Poll". The Liberal OC. Retrieved September 16, 2023.
  37. ↑ Chmielewski, Dan (December 18, 2023). "AFSCME Endorses Dave Min; America's Largest Public Employees Union Latest to Join Min's Massive Coalition". The Liberal OC. Retrieved December 20, 2023.
  38. ↑ Chmielewski, Dan (November 13, 2023). "Deputy Sheriffs Endorse Dave Min In CA-47;Largest Association of Deputy Sheriffs & District Attorney Investigators in the Country Back Dave Min". The Liberal OC. Retrieved November 15, 2023.
  39. ↑ Chmielewski, Dan (December 8, 2023). "California Labor Federation Backs Dave Min". The Liberal OC. Retrieved December 14, 2023.
  40. ↑ Chmielewski, Dan (July 6, 2023). "Teamsters Endorse Dave Min for Congress". The Liberal OC.
  41. 1 2 3 4 Chmielewski, Dan (August 24, 2023). "Public Employees Endorse Dave Min For Congress". The Liberal OC. Retrieved September 16, 2023.
  42. ↑ Chmielewski, Dan (May 15, 2023). "And Endorsements are Coming In". The Liberal OC. Retrieved May 16, 2023.
  43. ↑ "Our Recommended Candidates". Education Votes. Retrieved November 20, 2023.
  44. 1 2 3 4 Ackley, Kate; Altimari, Daniela; Lesniewski, Niels; McIntire, Mary Ellen (March 2, 2023). "At the Races: Back to the future". Roll Call. Retrieved March 2, 2023.
  45. 1 2 3 "Three members of the House of Representatives back Harley Rouda for Congress in CA-47". Orange County Breeze. January 23, 2023. Archived from the original on February 4, 2023. Retrieved May 19, 2023.
  46. 1 2 3 Gardiner, Dustin; Korte, Lara (September 14, 2023). "Last Bills Standing: First in Playbook". Politico. Retrieved September 16, 2023.
  47. ↑ "Elect Democratic Women Announces First House Endorsements of the 2024 Cycle". Elect Democratic Women. June 30, 2023. Retrieved August 24, 2023.
  48. ↑ McIntire, Mary Ellen (June 13, 2023). "EMILY's List backs Weiss in open California seat". Roll Call. Retrieved June 13, 2023.
  49. ↑ "2024 Election United States House - California 47th". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved November 27, 2023.
  50. ↑ Wasserman, David (January 10, 2023). "Porter Senate Run Starts Open CA-47 Race in Lean Democrat". The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  51. ↑ Gonzales, Nathan L.; Rubashkin, Jacob; Covey, Erin; Wascher, Bradley; Rothenberg, Stuart. "First 2024 House Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved March 10, 2023.
  52. ↑ Kondik, Kyle; Coleman, J. Miles; Sabato, Larry J. (February 23, 2023). "Initial House Ratings: Battle for Majority Starts as a Toss-up". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved February 23, 2023.
  53. ↑ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 9, 2023. Retrieved August 9, 2023.
  54. ↑ "2024 House Forecast". November 20, 2023. Retrieved November 20, 2023.
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