2024 California's 45th congressional district election
November 5, 2024
Incumbent U.S. Representative

Michelle Steel
Republican


The 2024 California's 45th congressional district election will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect the United States Representative for California's 45th congressional district, concurrently with elections for the other U.S. House districts in California and the rest of the country, as well as the 2024 U.S. Senate race in California, other elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The primary election will be held on March 5, 2024, concurrently with the Super Tuesday presidential primaries.

Based in Orange County and Los Angeles County, the 45th district contains all of Fountain Valley, Westminster, Garden Grove, Cypress, Buena Park, Cerritos, Artesia, La Palma, Placentia, Hawaiian Gardens, Los Alamitos, and Rossmoor, as well as portions of Brea, Lakewood, Fullerton, and Yorba Linda.[1] One-third of all registered voters in the district are Asian American, with Vietnamese Americans alone comprising 16% of the district's voters.[2]

The incumbent is Republican Michelle Steel, who was re-elected with 52.4% of the vote in 2022. Steel, who is Korean American, was first elected in 2020, unseating incumbent Democrat Harley Rouda. She previously served as a member of the Orange County Board of Supervisors and the California State Board of Equalization.

The race is expected to be highly competitive. Both House Democrats and House Republicans have listed California's 45th district among their highest-priority districts in the 2024 election.[3][4] Joe Biden carried this district by a 6% margin in the 2020 presidential election.[5] Steel is one of 18 House Republicans representing a Biden-won district.[6] At the local level, however, the 45th district has trended Republican, voting for Republicans in every state race in 2022.[7]

Candidates

Kim Bernice Nguyen-Penaloza
Michelle Steel

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Kim Bernice Nguyen-Penaloza (D)
U.S. representatives
State senators
State assemblymembers
Municipal officials
Local officials
Individuals
Political parties
Labor unions
Organizations
Michelle Steel (R)
Local officials
Organizations
Political parties
Derek Tran (D)
U.S. representatives
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Michelle Steel (R) $3,201,388[lower-alpha 1] $1,277,364 $2,380,560
Cheyenne Hunt (D) $272,211[lower-alpha 2] $127,644 $144,566
Kim Bernice Nguyen-
Penaloza (D)		 $206,844 $157,445 $49,398
Aditya Pai (D) $146,239[lower-alpha 3] $105,269 $40,870
Jimmy Pham (D)[lower-alpha 4] $29,899[lower-alpha 5] $29,899 $0
Source: Federal Election Commission[44]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[45] Lean R February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[46] Lean R March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[47] Lean R February 23, 2023
Elections Daily[48] Lean R June 8, 2023
CNalysis[49] Tilt R November 16, 2023

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 6]		 Margin
of error		 Cheyenne
Hunt (D)		 Kim Bernice
Nguyen-Penaloza (D)		 Aditya
Pai (D)		 Michelle
Steel (R)		 Derek
Tran (D)		 Undecided
Tulchin Research[upper-alpha 1] November 13–19, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.9% 6% 10% 2% 39% 11% 32%

Notes

  1. ↑ $410,000 of this total was self-funded by Steel
  2. ↑ $87,000 of this total was self-funded by Hunt
  3. ↑ $16,916 of this total was self-funded by Pai
  4. ↑ Withdrawn candidate
  5. ↑ $21,000 of this total was self-funded by Pham
  6. ↑ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
Partisan clients
  1. ↑ Poll sponsored by Tran's campaign

References

  1. ↑ "Our District". United States House of Representatives Page of Congresswoman Steel. January 3, 2021. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
  2. ↑ Chan, Melissa (November 9, 2022). "Why a Southern California congressional race hinges on Asian American voters". NPR. The Morning Edition. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
  3. ↑ Solender, Andrew (November 22, 2022). "House Democrats eye lost ground in 2024". Axios. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
  4. ↑ Steinhauser, Paul (February 3, 2023). "McCarthy launches 'Protect the House 2024' as he aims to expand the GOP majority". Fox News. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
  5. ↑ "Daily Kos Elections' 2020 presidential results by congressional district, for new and old districts". Daily Kos Elections. September 29, 2021. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
  6. ↑ Kondik, Kyle (December 1, 2022). "The New Crossover Members of the House". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
  7. ↑ "Statement of Vote November 8 2022 – General Election" (PDF). California Secretary of State. Retrieved January 5, 2024.
  8. 1 2 Kang, Hanna (April 4, 2023). "25-year-old OC TikTok influencer could become the next Gen Z member of Congress". The Orange County Register. Lance Trover, Steel's campaign manager, said, 'Southern California voters know her record of fighting for lower taxes, standing up to the Chinese Communist Party and ensuring everyone has a shot at the American dream,' maintaining she will be reelected in 2024.
  9. ↑ Singer, Jeff (January 25, 2023). "Orange County Democrat launches bid to beat Rep. Michelle Steel in competitive seat Biden carried". The Daily Kos. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
  10. ↑ Kang, Hanna (April 10, 2023). "Third Democrat jumps into race in attempt to flip Michelle Steel's seat in 2024". The Orange County Register. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
  11. ↑ Marans, Daniel (October 2, 2023). "Democrat Derek Tran Announces Bid For Key California House Seat". Huffington Post. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  12. ↑ Chmielewski, Dan (October 13, 2023). "CA-45 CANDIDATE JIMMY PHAM SUSPENDS CAMPAIGN FOR CONGRESS". The Liberal OC. Retrieved October 14, 2023.
  13. 1 2 Kang, Hanna (October 20, 2023). "Jimmy Pham launches Assembly campaign days after dropping out of congressional race". The Orange County Register. Retrieved October 24, 2023.
  14. ↑ Kang, Hanna (May 26, 2023). "The race for Rep. Katie Porter's open congressional seat is growing". The Orange County Register. Retrieved May 28, 2023.
  15. 1 2 Chmielewski, Dan (September 6, 2023). "Congressman Lou Correa Endorses Kim Nguyen for Congress". The Liberal OC. Retrieved September 16, 2023.
  16. 1 2 "ASPIRE PAC Announces Two Congressional Endorsements". ASPIRE PAC. August 21, 2023. Retrieved August 28, 2023.
  17. ↑ Chmielewski, Dan (May 15, 2023). "And Endorsements are Coming In". The Liberal OC. Retrieved May 16, 2023.
  18. 1 2 3 Chmielewski, Dan (June 29, 2023). "Kim Nguyen gets endorsed by Rep. Katie Porter". The Liberal OC. Retrieved July 14, 2023.
  19. 1 2 Castaneda, Diana (May 23, 2023). "CHC BOLD PAC Announces New Endorsements for 2024". CHC BOLD PAC. Retrieved May 25, 2023.
  20. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Mill, Sean (January 30, 2023). "Assemblywoman Quirk-Silva and CA-45 Leaders endorse Kim Bernice Nguyen for Congress". New Santa Ana. Retrieved April 22, 2023.
  21. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 "Los Angeles/Orange County Building and Construction Trades Council endorses Kim Bernice Nguyen for Congress". Orange County Breeze. March 30, 2023. Archived from the original on March 31, 2023. Retrieved March 30, 2023.
  22. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Chmielewski, Dan (October 3, 2023). "National Women's Political Caucus (NWPC) Endorses Kim Nguyen for Congress". The Liberal OC. Retrieved October 4, 2023.
  23. 1 2 3 4 5 Chmielewski, Dan (November 30, 2023). "California Teachers and National Education Association Endorse Kim Nguyen-Penaloza for Congress". The Liberal OC. Retrieved December 1, 2023.
  24. ↑ "Primary Endorsements" (PDF). California Democratic Party. November 19, 2023. Retrieved November 20, 2023.
  25. ↑ Chmielewski, Dan (December 6, 2023). "2.2 Million Member Strong California Labor Federation Endorses Kim Nguyen-Penaloza for Congress". The Liberal OC. Retrieved December 6, 2023.
  26. ↑ Chmielewski, Dan (November 30, 2023). "Laborers' International Union of North America (LIUNA) Endorses Kim Nguyen-Penaloza for Congress". The Liberal OC. Retrieved December 1, 2023.
  27. ↑ Chmielewski, Dan (October 6, 2023). "Service Employees International Union (SEIU) California Endorses Kim Nguyen for Congress". The Liberal OC. Retrieved October 7, 2023.
  28. ↑ Chmielewski, Dan (December 5, 2023). "California Young Democrats (CYD) Endorse Kim Nguyen-Penaloza for Congress". The Liberal OC. Retrieved December 6, 2023.
  29. ↑ Orange County Young Democrats [@OCYD] (March 30, 2023). "Join us tonight to support former OCYD Executive Board Member @votekimnguyen!" (Tweet). Retrieved March 31, 2023 – via Twitter.
  30. ↑ "Candidates: 2024 PODER PAC Endorsements". PODER PAC. Retrieved December 4, 2023.
  31. ↑ DeMaio, Carl (August 22, 2023). "Reform California Releases Its First Round of Voter Guide Endorsements for the 2024 Election". Reform California. Archived from the original on August 29, 2023. Retrieved August 29, 2023.
  32. ↑ "Support Pro-Israel Candidates". AIPAC PAC. Retrieved April 7, 2023.
  33. ↑ "Huck PAC endorses 19 new candidates in 12 states - Blog - Huck PAC". Huck PAC. September 5, 2023. Archived from the original on September 6, 2023. Retrieved September 6, 2023.
  34. ↑ Holt, Matt (June 15, 2023). "The Messenger: A PAC Dedicated to Electing GOP Women Issues First Wave of 2024 Endorsements (Exclusive)". The Messenger via Maggie's List. Retrieved September 6, 2023.
  35. ↑ "RJC Announces 11 House Endorsements". Republican Jewish Coalition. Retrieved December 24, 2023.
  36. ↑ "CAGOP Releases Several Endorsements for 2024 Election". California Republican Party. Retrieved July 23, 2023.
  37. ↑ "Republican Party of Orange County endorses Rep. Michelle Steel for reelection". Orange County Breeze. February 23, 2023. Archived from the original on April 22, 2023. Retrieved April 22, 2023.
  38. 1 2 Chmielewski, Dan (November 30, 2023). "Rep. Judy Chu Endorses Derek Tran for CA-45". The Liberal OC. Retrieved December 1, 2023.
  39. ↑ Chmielewski, Dan (November 18, 2023). "Rep. Zoe Lofgren Endorses Derek Tran for CA-45". The Liberal OC. Retrieved November 24, 2023.
  40. ↑ "Candidates". Serve America PAC. Retrieved January 2, 2024.
  41. ↑ "NewDem Action Fund Announces Latest Red-to-Blue Candidate Endorsement Slate for 2024". NewDem Action Fund. December 12, 2023. Archived from the original on December 12, 2023. Retrieved December 12, 2023.
  42. ↑ Chmielewski, Dan (October 31, 2023). "New Politics Endorses Derek Tran In CA45". The Liberal OC. Retrieved November 13, 2023.
  43. ↑ "VoteVets Endorses Derek Tran for CA-45". Derek Tran for Congress. December 1, 2023. Retrieved December 1, 2023.
  44. ↑ "2024 Election United States House - California 45th". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved November 27, 2023.
  45. ↑ Wasserman, David (February 2, 2023). "2024 House Race Ratings: Another Competitive Fight for Control". The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. Retrieved February 3, 2023.
  46. ↑ Gonzales, Nathan L.; Rubashkin, Jacob; Covey, Erin; Wascher, Bradley; Rothenberg, Stuart (May 5, 2023). "First 2024 House Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved May 26, 2023.
  47. ↑ Kondik, Kyle (February 23, 2023). "Initial House Ratings: Battle for Majority Starts as a Toss-up". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved February 23, 2023.
  48. ↑ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 9, 2023. Retrieved August 9, 2023.
  49. ↑ "2024 House Forecast". November 20, 2023. Retrieved November 20, 2023.
Official campaign websites
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